Threat Impact Changing: Risk Register Updates and Avoidance Strategies

PMBOK v8 Definition

Risk avoidance is when the project team acts to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact. Avoidance may be appropriate for high-priority threats with a high probability of occurrence and a large negative impact. This strategy involves changing some aspect of the project management plan or changing the objective that is in jeopardy to eliminate the threat entirely, reducing its probability of occurrence to zero. The risk owner may also take action to isolate the project objectives from the risk's impact if it were to occur.

Why It Matters for the Exam

The PMI exam frequently tests the distinction between risk response strategies, particularly avoidance, because candidates often confuse it with mitigation or transfer. Questions appear in scenario-based format where you must select the correct strategy based on the action described. The exam also tests when avoidance is applied at the individual threat level versus the overall project risk level, including the extreme case of project cancellation.

Key Points to Remember (for the exam)

• Definition of Avoidance: Eliminates the threat or protects the project from its impact; reduces probability to zero
• When to Use: High-priority threats with high probability and large negative impact
• Actions Involved: Changing the project management plan, changing the objective, removing the cause, extending schedule, changing strategy, or reducing scope
• Overall Project Level: When overall project risk is significantly negative and outside agreed-upon thresholds, avoidance may include removing high-risk elements of scope or canceling the project
• Extreme Measure: Project cancellation is the most extreme degree of risk avoidance, used only if the overall threat is and will remain unacceptable
• Risk Register Update: Escalated threats are recorded in the risk register for information but are not monitored further by the project team
• Key Distinction: Avoidance eliminates the threat entirely (probability = 0), while mitigation reduces probability or impact

Typical PMI Exam Example

A project has identified a high-priority threat: a critical supplier may go bankrupt, causing a 6-month delay. The project manager decides to change the project strategy by sourcing materials from two different suppliers instead of one. This is an example of which risk response strategy?

Answer: Avoidance (the action eliminates the threat by removing the single point of failure)

PMI Exam Traps

• Trap: Confusing avoidance with mitigation

  • Reality: Avoidance eliminates the threat (probability = 0); mitigation reduces probability or impact (probability > 0)

• Trap: Thinking avoidance only applies to individual threats

  • Reality: Avoidance also applies at the overall project risk level, including removing high-risk scope or canceling the project

• Trap: Assuming escalated threats are still monitored by the project team

  • Reality: Escalated threats are not monitored further by the project team after escalation; they are recorded in the risk register for information

• Trap: Believing scope reduction is always a negative action

  • Reality: Scope reduction is a legitimate avoidance strategy to eliminate threats; at the overall project level, removing high-risk scope elements is a valid response

Important PMI Connections

Quick Review Questions

1. A project team removes the cause of a threat entirely. Which risk response strategy is being applied?

2. When overall project risk is significantly negative and cannot be brought within thresholds, what is the most extreme avoidance action?

3. After a threat is escalated to the program level, who monitors the threat going forward?

4. What is the key difference between risk avoidance and risk mitigation in terms of probability?

5. A project manager extends the schedule to avoid a threat. Is this avoidance or mitigation?

PMBOK v8 Reference

Section 11.5 - Plan Risk Responses (Risk Avoidance strategy for individual threats and overall project risk)

Note: The PMBOK v8 content provided addresses risk avoidance as a response strategy for both individual threats and overall project risk, including escalation procedures and risk register documentation.