Issue, Risk, and Project: Known-Unknown Distinctions

PMBOK v8 Definition

An issue is a current condition or situation that may have an impact on one or more project objectives. An issue has already occurred and may require immediate action or management attention. A risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives. Risks are potential future problems that have not yet occurred, while issues have already occurred or are still occurring. Risks and issues may be closely related, as an issue may arise from a poorly managed risk. Risks can be classified into known-known, known-unknown, unknown-known, and unknown-unknown categories (see Figure 2-46). Overall risk is the effect of uncertainty on the portfolio, program, or project as a whole.

Why It Matters for the Exam

This distinction between issues and risks is frequently tested in PMI exam questions, particularly in scenario-based questions where you must determine whether a situation represents a risk (future uncertainty) or an issue (current problem). Questions often test your ability to select the correct management response based on whether something has already occurred or is still uncertain. The known-unknown classification also appears in questions about risk identification and risk response planning.

Key Points to Remember (for the exam)

• Issue Definition: An issue has already occurred; it is a current condition impacting objectives and requires immediate action or management attention
• Risk Definition: A risk is a potential future event that has NOT yet occurred; it may be positive (opportunity) or negative (threat)
• Key Relationship: Issues may arise from poorly managed risks – this is a common exam scenario
• Risk Classification: Known-known (managed as scope), known-unknown (identified risks), unknown-known (hidden facts), unknown-unknown (emergent risks)
• Overall Risk: The effect of uncertainty on the entire project, not just individual risks; if too high, the organization may cancel the project
• Risk Register Content: Includes list of identified risks with unique identifiers, structured risk statements (cause-event-consequence), and potential risk owners
• Issue Log: Used to track current issues; reviewing the issue log and risk register can identify challenges associated with individual stakeholders

Typical PMI Exam Example

A project manager notices that a key supplier has missed two consecutive delivery deadlines. The project schedule is now delayed by three weeks. According to PMBOK v8, how should the project manager classify this situation?

Answer: This is an issue because the delivery failure has already occurred and is currently impacting the project schedule. The project manager should document it in the issue log and take immediate action.

PMI Exam Traps

• Trap: Confusing a risk that has materialized with a risk that is still potential

  • Reality: Once a risk occurs, it becomes an issue and moves from the risk register to the issue log

• Trap: Treating all uncertainties as risks

  • Reality: Known-knowns are managed as scope, not as risks; only known-unknowns are managed as identified risks

• Trap: Confusing overall risk with individual project risks

  • Reality: Overall risk is the effect of uncertainty on the entire project; individual risks are specific uncertain events. Responses to overall risk are applied to the whole project, not specific events

• Trap: Thinking issues and risks are managed identically

  • Reality: Issues require immediate action (current problem), while risks require proactive planning (future uncertainty)

Important PMI Connections

Quick Review Questions

1. A project team identifies a potential delay in regulatory approval that has not yet occurred. Is this a risk or an issue?

2. During a project review, the team discovers that a subcontractor has already delivered defective materials. How should this be documented?

3. What is the difference between known-unknown risks and unknown-unknown risks according to PMBOK v8?

4. When would a project manager apply risk responses to the overall project rather than to specific events?

5. A risk that was previously identified has now occurred. What should the project manager do with the risk register and issue log?

PMBOK v8 Reference

Section 2.7.2 - Identify Risks (including Figure 2-46 on risk classification) Section 2.7.2.2 - Identify Risks process description Section 2.7.2 - Risk and Issue definitions (Passages 1-5 from RAG context)